[Download] ➸ Thinking, Fast and Slow By Daniel Kahneman – Saudionline.co.uk

Thinking, Fast and Slow pdf Thinking, Fast and Slow, ebook Thinking, Fast and Slow, epub Thinking, Fast and Slow, doc Thinking, Fast and Slow, e-pub Thinking, Fast and Slow, Thinking, Fast and Slow 55101b24d03 In The Highly Anticipated Thinking, Fast And Slow, Kahneman Takes Us On A Groundbreaking Tour Of The Mind And Explains The Two Systems That Drive The Way We Think System Is Fast, Intuitive, And Emotional System Is Slower, Deliberative, And Logical Kahneman Exposes The Extraordinary Capabilities And Also The Faults And Biases Of Fast Thinking, And Reveals The Pervasive Influence Of Intuitive Impressions On Our Thoughts And Behavior The Impact Of Loss Aversion And Overconfidence On Corporate Strategies, The Difficulties Of Predicting What Will Make Us Happy In The Future, The Challenges Of Properly Framing Risks At Work And At Home, The Profound Effect Of Cognitive Biases On Everything From Playing The Stock Market To Planning The Next Vacation Each Of These Can Be Understood Only By Knowing How The Two Systems Work Together To Shape Our Judgments And DecisionsEngaging The Reader In A Lively Conversation About How We Think, Kahneman Reveals Where We Can And Cannot Trust Our Intuitions And How We Can Tap Into The Benefits Of Slow Thinking He Offers Practical And Enlightening Insights Into How Choices Are Made In Both Our Business And Our Personal Lives And How We Can Use Different Techniques To Guard Against The Mental Glitches That Often Get Us Into Trouble Thinking, Fast And Slow Will Transform The Way You Think About Thinking


10 thoughts on “Thinking, Fast and Slow

  1. says:

    In the last few years two books took me FOREVER to get through The first was Daniel Dennett s Darwin s Dangerous Idea and the second is Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow What caused this What do they have in common Both books explain, in minute detail, simple concepts with immensely far reaching implications, and both have been after the slog the most intellectually rewarding reading of my adult life Where to begin I have a number of theories running around in my head, and occasionally I try to corral them on paper I organize, sequence and interconnect them in a way that will prevent my reader from meaningfully widening their eyes, in an aside, while winding their finger around one ear Cuckoo Good writing about complex topics is very, very difficult, and Kahneman has corraled 30 years of science, his career and all he has learned into a perfectly arranged sequence that leads the reader into a wilderness provisioning you in each chapter with the tools you ll need for the next part of the journey.The second most striking effect on me is the number of times I said, Yes YES this is what I ve been saying In my case it has usually been some sort of intuitive excuse me, Mr Kahneman I mean System 1 recognition of a pattern in my observations about the way we think In Kahneman s case those intuitions have been converted into theoretical propositions, each meticulously researched in well designed experiments Clearly, this is at least one difference between me and a Nobel Prize winning researcher.So why does this stuff matter In the context of broader discussions of free will, intention, choice and control over the directions our lives take, this book can provide powerful insights that might currently be obscured by these cognitive illusions and the inherent limitations of System 1 System 2 thinking Perhaps we re not as free in our decisions as we might like to think, if priming has such a stunningly reproducible effect Perhaps we re not so determined, if activities that initially require System 2 attention, can be turned into second nature, technical expertise intuitions I.e learning and training MATTERS in our ability to detect and respond to events that if untrained might take advantage of our brain s inherent blind spots or weaknesses Perhaps childhood religious indoctrination is a very adept recognition of these mental tendencies flaws, so profoundly if intuitively naively expressed by Ignatius Loyola, founder of the Jesuit order, Give me the boy until 7, I will give you the man paraphrased forgive me Kahneman s discoveries and documentation of mental capacity and biases could form the basis of a Mental Martial Arts program an alternative form of indoctrination, in which students are trained to understand their brains weaknesses, and learn to take stances or engage in practices that eliminate or reduce the errors to which these weaknesses can lead This book will rearrange the way you think about how you think.


  2. says:

    An unrelentingly tedious book that can be summed up as follows We are irrationally prone to jump to conclusions based on rule of thumb shortcuts to actual reasoning, and in reliance on bad evidence, even though we have the capacity to think our way to better conclusions But we re lazy, so we don t We don t understand statistics, and if we did, we d be cautious in our judgments, and less prone to think highly of our own skill at judging probabilities and outcomes Life not only is uncertain, we cannot understand it systemically, and luck has just as much to do with what happens to us maybe even than we care to admit When in doubt, rely on an algorithm, because it s accurate than your best guess or some expert s opinion Above all, determine the baseline before you come to any decisions If you like endless and I mean endless algebraic word problems and circuitous anecdotes about everything from the author s dead friend Amos to his stint with the Israeli Air Defense Force, if you like slow paced, rambling explanations that rarely summarize a conclusion, if your idea of a hot date is to talk Bayesian theory with a clinical psychologist or an economist, then this book is for you, who are likely a highly specialized academically inclined person Perhaps you are even a blast at parties, I don t know But if you re like me and you prefer authors to cut to the chase, make their point, and then leave you with a whopping big appendix if you re interested in the regression analysis of how many freshmen would watch a guy choke to death because they think someone else will come to the rescue, then this book is not for you.If you want to take the Reader s Digest pass through the book, then Chapter 1 and Section 3 are probably the most accessible and can be read in less than an hour, and still leave you with a fair understanding of the author s thesis.


  3. says:

    This is a fascinating book Reading this book means not having to read so many others For example, you could avoid having to read, Sway, Blink, Nudge and probably a dozen or so other books on Behavioural Economics And the best part of it is that this is the guy or, at least one half of the two guys who came up with these ideas in the first place I was thinking that perhaps the best way to explain those other books would be to compare them to Monty Python I want you to imagine something say you had spent your entire life and never actually seen an episode of Monty Python s Flying Circus That wouldn t mean you wouldn t know anything about Monty Python It is impossible to have lived at any time since the late 60s and not have had some socially dysfunctional male reprise the entire Parrot sketch or Spanish Inquisition sketch at you at some stage in your life I suspect, although there is no way to prove this now, obviously, that Osama bin Laden could do the Silly Walk like a natural Well, if you had never seen an episode of Monty Python and your entire experience of their work was via the interpretation of men of a certain age down the pub then finally getting to see an episode of the original would be much the same effect as reading this book Hundreds of people have already told all this guy s best stories in their own books but all the same it is a pleasure to hear them again by the guy that first said, this parrot is dead or rather, framing effects make fools of us all.You need to read this book but what is particularly good about it is that you come away from it knowing we really are remarkably easy to fool It s because we think we know stuff that this comes as a constant surprise to us Years ago I was talking to a guy who liked to bet Everyone needs a hobby and that was his Anyway, he told me he was playing two up an Australian betting game and he realised something like tails hadn t come up frequently enough and so he started betting on tails and sure enough he made money I told him that coins don t remember the last throw and so the odds of getting a tail was still 50%, as it had previously been But I had no credibility I d already told him I never bet so, how would I possibly know anything if I wasn t even brave enough to put my own money on the outcome And didn t I understand the point of this story was he had already WON Still, when faced with a series of coin flips that run H, H, H, H, H, T, H, H, H it does feel like tails are due This is the sort of mistake we are all too prone to make The thing to remember is that while there is a law of large numbers toss a coin often enough and in the very long run there will be as many heads turn up as tails that isn t the case in the short run where just about anything is possible.We that is, we humans are remarkably bad at mental statistics And what makes it worse is that we are predictably bad at statistics And this brings me to Bourdieu and him saying that Sociology is kind of martial art He means that Sociology allows you to defend yourself from those who would manipulate you Well, this book is the Bruce Lee book of advanced self defence Learning just how we fool ourselves might not make you feel terribly great about what it means to be human but at least you will know why you hav stuffed up next time you do stuff up I m not sure it will stop you stuffing up but that would be asking for an awful lot from one book.If you want the short version of this book, he has provided the two papers that probably got him the Nobel Prize and they are remarkably clear, easy to understand and comprehensive But look, read this book it will do you good.


  4. says:

    I kind of want to cut this book in half, praise the first part, and stick the second part in some corner to gather dust Not that the second part is bad, mind you the entire book is well written and obviously the product of someone who knows their field There s just a lot of it Thinking, Fast and Slow is kind of like a guest who shows up to your party and then dazzles everyone with an impromptu, 15 minute oration on the geopolitical situation in South Ossetia and, everyone applauds and turns to go back to their own conversations, only for the guest to launch into another story about the time they parachuted into the Balkans to break up a nascent civil war, a story which is followed quickly by a similar tale of a visit to Southeast Asia Well, I think you catch my drift Daniel Kahneman spins an interesting tale of human psychology and the way our brains interpret and act on data But the book overstays its welcome by a few hundred pages.Kahneman s thesis breaks our decision making systems into two pieces, System 1 and System 2, which are the respective fast and slow of the title System 1 provides intuitive judgements based on stimulus we might not even be conscious of receiving it s the snap signals that we might not even know we are acting upon System 2 is the contemplative, cognitively taxing counterpart that we engage for serious mental exertion Though often oppositional in the types of decisions they produce, Kahneman is keen to emphasize that it s not about System 1 versus System 2 Instead, he s out to educate us about how the interplay between these systems causes us to make decisions that aren t always rational or sensible given the statistics and evidence at hand.Kahneman takes us through an exhaustive tour of biases and fallacies people are prone to making He talks about the halo effect, affection bias, confirmation bias, and even regression to the mean As a mathematician, I liked his angle on probability and statistics as a logician, I appreciated his brief segues into the logical aspects of our contradictory decision making processes Lest I give the impression Kahneman gets too technical, however, I should emphasize that, despite its length, Thinking, Fast and Slow remains aggressively accessible There are a few points where, if you don t have a basic grasp of probability and if Kahneman demonstrates anything, it s that most people don t , then you might feel talked over or maybe it s those less than infrequent, casual mentions of and later I won a Nobel Prize But this book isn t so much about science as it is about people.There are two other things I really appreciated about this book, both of which are related to psychology I m a fairly easygoing person, and I don t always like to make waves, but sometimes I like to make some trouble and argue with some of my friends about whether psychology is a science The problem for psychology is that it s actually a rather broad term for a series of overlapping fields of investigation into human behaviour On one end of this continuum, you have Freud and Jung and the various psychoanalysts who, let s face it, are one step up from astrologers and palm readers On the other end, you have the cutting edge cognitive psychology informed by the neuroscience of MRIs, split brain studies, and rat research So claiming that psychology is or isn t a science is a little simplistic, and I m willing to grant that there are areas within psychology that are science For what it s worth, Kahneman went a long way to reinforcing this it s clear he and his collaborators have done decades of extensive research Now, yes, it s social science, but I won t get into that particular snobbery today The other thing I liked about Thinking, Fast and Slow is its failure to mention evolutionary psychology Once in a while, Kahneman alludes to System 1 s behaviour being the result of evolutionary adaptation and that s fine, because it is true, almost tautologically so But he never quite delves into speculation about why such behaviour evolved, and I appreciate this There s a difference between identifying something as an adaptation and determining why it s an adaptation, and I m not a fan of evolutionary psychologists attempts to reduce everything to the trauma of trading trees for bipedalism I m willing to admit I have an ape brain, but culture must count for something, hmm I suppose it s also worth mentioning that this book reaffirms my supercilious disregard for economics According to Kahneman, stock brokers and investors have no idea what they are doing and some of them know this, but most of them don t Economists are, for the most part, highly trained, but they seem bent upon sustaining this theoretical fantasy land in which humans are rational creatures Aristotle aside, the data seem to say it isn t so I occasionally try my hand at reading books about the economy, just so I can say I did, but they usually end up going over my head I m a mathematician and I don t get numbers but at least I m not the only one.So Thinking, Fast and Slow is genuinely interesting I learned a lot from it I would rate it higher, but I was starting to flag as I approached the finish line Truth be told, I skipped the two articles Kahneman includes at the end that were the original publications about the theories he explains in the book I m sure they are fascinating for someone with stamina, but at that point I just wanted to be done That s never good one of the responsibilities of a non fiction author is to know how to pace a book and keep its length appropriate Too short and the book is unsatisfying too long, and maybe it s so And I think this flaw is entirely avoidable it s a result of Kahneman s tendency to reiterate, to circle back around to the same discussions over and over again He spends an entire chapter on prospect theory, then a few chapters later he s telling us about its genesis all over again, just from a slightly different angle Like that party guest, Kahneman is full of interesting stories, but after telling one after another for such a long period of time, it starts sounding like white noise And he ate all those little cocktail snacks too.I inevitably ended up comparing Thinking, Fast and Slow to How We Decide , a much slimmer volume along much the same lines as this one Whereas Lehrer s focus is on the neurology behind decision making, Kahneman is interested in the psychology Both books boil down to we suck at automatic decision making when statistics are involved therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we do Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong In many ways the books are complementary, and if this is an area of interest for you, I ll recommend them both For the casual reader, however, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a rather dense meal By all means, give it a try, but take it slow.


  5. says:

    If your objective, like it is when one finishes reading a self help book, is to implement what Mr Kahneman has to say in real life and benefit from it, I should warn you, you will be sorely disappointed Believe it or not, in my opinion, I believe Mr Kahneman is telling you exactly that in this book that whether you like it or not, your entire life is guided or may I say decided by two fundamental ideas and that there is very little you can do to change it, period Mr Kahneman is probably the villain in every modern day spiritual guru s life, he argues very effectively that contrary to what these gurus may say the external world your environment surroundings or even society for that matter has a large say in your personal deliberate actions You don t have a choice So, having said that, shelving this book in psychology section would be gross injustice In my view this is such a good commentary of human nature The two are different, very much so Read it, totally worth it in my opinion Can get a little too drab but hang in there, this book is an eye opener.


  6. says:

    Hands down, one of the best books in its genre The book is a lengthy, self conscious and a challenging read but highly recommended if you re interested in why human beings behave the way they behave It s given me so much oh snap, so that s why we re so dumb moments that at this point I don t even want to admit I m a human to any space time traveling race that comes in collision of 21st century Earth.Citing behavioral research studies, he s convinced me that human confidence is a measure of whether a person has built up a coherent story not that the person truly knows what she s doing He s convinced me that the feeling of ease is just cognitive familiarity He s convinced me why first impressions matter than we think due to the Halo effect He s convinced me that the human mind doesn t understand non events We think we understand the past, but we really don t We create coherency by attributing causality to events, but not to non events In other words we underestimate the role of luck or the role of unknown variables in a given situation He has given me reason to believe that in low validity environments, it s better to use formula s than to listen to expert human judgment For example, the stability of a marriage can be better predicted by a simple equation like stability frequency of love making frequency of arguing than an expert opinion.But one of the most interesting hypothesis he builds up is the existence of two systems in the mind System 1 is prone to cognitive biases described above, but it s also where morality comes from Not to mention intuitive judgment and hueristic answers to life s everyday questions Would you believe it Morality is of an intuitive thing than a logical and reasonable framework And the funny thing is without system 1, we d won t survive a day in the life Not to mention we wouldn t act human System 2 on the other hand is introspective, rational and is capable of being aware of the cognitive biases created by System 1 If my understanding is correct then, we can replicate system 2 by a machine or artificial intelligence But that machine will not have the same extent of morality that we have food for thought In later chapters of the book, he describes another variation of duality in the human mind An Experiencing Self and a Remembering Self With countless examples both experimental and anecdotal he vividly paints a picture of how humans have this notion of I am my remembering self, and strangely my experiencing self is a stranger to me We re actually okay with letting our Experiencing Self suffer for the good of the Remembering Self This ties in to the cognitive bias of focusing Illusion Focalism and how we tend to overestimate a certain aspect of life To put the icing on the cake he finalizes the book by analyzing how we appreciate, value and judge the quality of our lives with all these biases combined And it s amazing how irrational we are in doing so Not only have I realized from this book that I should stop worrying about societal standards because they are mostly based on irrational biases but that I should spend a significant amount of my time and effort to into creating a value structure ideally suited for myself Now, only if I had bit memory and cpu speed on System 2


  7. says:

    Thinking, Fast and Slow is just okay It s being marketed as a book on psychology and economic psychology, in particular for the layperson I m not sure if other laypeople agree, but this wasn t really for me And it s not that the prose is too technical okay, sometimes it is but rather that Kahneman is stuck somewhere between academic technicalities and clear expressive prose Note The rest of this review has been withdrawn due to the recent changes in Goodreads policy and enforcement You can read why I came to this decision here.In the meantime, you can read the entire review at Smorgasbook


  8. says:

    Whew Wrestled this one down to the ground It s got so much in it I ve got all I can for now I m leaving it out in the living room for now, though for refreshers.The author s aim is to prove to us that we are not rational beings to the extent we think we are, that evolution has seen to that And that being the case, the book outlines what we need to know so as not to mess up decisions like we have been doing like we all do And he s made it accessible He pulls you in You will get your share of Aha moments You can read it at whatever level you want You can skim over the complicated parts and go for the pithy conclusions Or if you are really into the science and scholarship, there are footnotes in the back stealth footnotes without the little numbers on the book s pages, so as not to intimidate the general audience All based on science It s true whether you like it or not And it is applicable to your life You can t go over it, you can t go under it, so go through it with this book If we all used our brains just a little , what couldn t we accomplish News for August 9, 2013 Daniel Kahneman is one of the sixteen Medal of Freedom recipients for this year.February 11, 2019 Heard on NPR Krista Tippett s On Being Sunday a week ago a good review overview


  9. says:

    It is very difficult to judge, review or analyze a book that basically challenges the very idea of human Rationalism Are humans perfectly rational This dude, Daniel Kahneman, got a Nobel Prize in Economics for saying they are not An ordinary person might have been treated with glare or a stinging slap if he said that to someone s face We simply don t like being told that we are not very rational and certainly not as intelligent as we think we are Hidden in the depths of our consciousness, are some actors that keep tempering with our rationality And we almost consciously allow this to happen All in all, this book is a tour de force of Behavioral Psychology Explaining how our mind comes to conclusions and makes decisions, Kahneman explains that our intuition and decision making part of brain has two personalities These personalities, he says, are not two different or distinct systems but to understand them better, we will have to assign personalities not only to understand them better but also to be able to relate to them on a personal level The two systems are called system 1 and system 2, for the sake of convenience System 1 is vigilant, impulsive, judgmental, easily manipulated, highly emotional System 2, on the other hand is the total opposite of system 1, it is very intelligent, indolent, mostly drowsing off in the back of our head, difficult to convince and extremely stubborn, and it only comes to action when there is some sort of emergency Both these systems are susceptible to a number of biases, system 1 than system 2 I thought Kahneman would build up this narrative systematically but he goes on to give us a tour of his years of research, experiments and surveys exploring every nook of our conscious human mind He focuses on a diverse set of heuristics and biases that influence our judgments in everyday life With some brilliant experiments and survey reports, he convincingly elaborates the effects that these biases have on our decisions Never forgetting to highlight the fallacies of our consciousness, he touches on a number of other important breakthroughs in the world of psychology.This is a very simple case of visual illusion where we see two lines of same size appearing to be of varying lengths Even after knowing that they are equal and the illusion is created by the fins attached to them, our system 1 still impulsively signals that one of them is longer then the other Through this simple illustration, he moves on to introduce Cognitive Illusions, which are fascinating, and are drastically effective Kahneman contends that it is extremely difficult to overcome heuristic biases Although, through methods like using statistical formulas and deliberate scrutiny we can rationalize our decisions to some extent Still, we are inherently prone to fall for dazzling rhetoric and dashing figures, we believe in myths and incidents that are as improbable as they are ludicrous, because this is the way we see things But this is not undesirable altogether, some of the intuitive abilities are an evolutionary blessing that help us understand emotions and make correct decision in split seconds Neither does the author deems it expedient to overcome these biases, but only to recognize them and put our system 2 to work before making crucial judgments I am afraid that this review is getting a bit too long, and to be honest, I don t think anyone reads long reviews Except some of my nerdy goodread friends who then leave an equally baffling Proustian comment, which of course, takes quite a while to be properly understood So I will mention a summary of some critical biases, ideas and psychological phenomenon that I found interesting I have attempted to summarize some heuristics, biases and psychological principle that I thought would make a fascinating introduction to tempt a novice like me to further explore the subject They are just the tip of iceberg and not by any means exhaustive and just comprise a small part of what this book is all about Associative machine System 1 works in surprising ways, read this BANANA VOMIT Now, a lot happened in last few seconds when you read these two words You wore an expression of disgust and a very bad image came to your mind, your body too reacted in disgust and for short time you might not want to eat bananas All of this was automatic and beyond your control It was The Associative Machine of system 1 We associate seemingly some unrelated images and with some imagination, form an image Our brain loves patterns and some times it sees things that aren t even there A very interesting clip in which Simon Singh shows associative machine at work Exposure to a word causes immediate changes in the ease with which many related words can be evoked If you have recently heard the word EAT, you are temporarily likely to complete the word fragment SO_P as SOUP than as SOAP The opposite would happen if you had just seen WASH.Similarly, exposure to an idea or event can also have similar temporary effect on our behavior Florida Effect Cognitive Ease We all love it when we don t have to work too hard because system 2 doesn t like being bothered So we admire and rather look for cognitive ease Things that are less complex have a positive effect on our behavior Psychologists use the term Mind at ease puts a smile on the face Similarly, smiling and laughing can also ease our mind system 1 and make us feel confident and in control Anything that is easy to understand read or see is likely to have a positive effect on us as compared to anything that we have a hard time understanding or visualizing.Exposure Effect We are likely to choose the thing we are familiar with The principle that Familiarity breeds liking suggests that we are inclined towards anything that is familiar and has been exposed to us before in past The the exposure is, the we will be inclined towards it This principle is excellently illustrated in Will Smith s Focus 2015.a similar trick is used to con a billionaire Normality illusion Things that recur with greater frequency are considered normal, no matter how horrendous they are Two people killed in a terrorist attack in a western country are likely to be mourned then a hundreds of children killed in Gaza by a missile strike Simply due to the fact that children in Gaze get bombed all the time, while a terrorist attack that kills innocents is sort of rarity in Europe and America The same concept is present in Orwell s Animal Farm in which pigs start to dominate other animals and it becomes the norm after a while Substitution If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it For instance when asked How happy are you with your life these days Its likely that we don t use a broad frame to answer the question and substitute it with a simpler question What is my mood right now System 1 can readily answer the substitute question but to answer the real question, System 2 would have to be excited, which as we know System 2 doesn t like In everyday life, we use this to avoid making decisions and expressions based on factual background and therefore make an impulsive and sometimes irrational comment to a difficult question.What you see is there is We take pride in our intuitive abilities which leads us to believe that we know the whole truth, no matter how fallible our sources are, and not withstanding the fact that there is always another side of the picture When we hear a story or an incident, we tend to accept it as a fact without considering any view dissenting or contradicting it Psychologists call it WYSIATI complex we are much gullible than we like to believe But it is again the mischief of System 1 that leads us to believe a narrative impulsively and without further inquisition as to its authenticity It is also another example of our intuitive tendency to see things in a narrow frame.Loss Aversion Call it a gift of evolution or survival instinct, but we are naturally loss averse in most of our decisions We are likely to abandon a huge profit if there is some probability of an equally huge loss We do want to have , but not at the cost of putting our own at stake, we relish our possessions than our desire to have Overconfidence and Hindsight bias A general limitation of our mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed Once you adopt a new view of the world or any part of it , you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed We see people everyday saying that what just happened was what they always thought would happen and they, in their overconfidence, start believing that they always knew in hindsight that such an event was probable see Halo Effect Prospect theory This theory attempts to explain the way people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known Kahneman illustrates it through this graph This theory is one of his most important in the field of behavioral economics Owing to its complexity, I can not summarize it here P.S I highly recommend this book to anyone with a serious interest in Behavioral Psychology Don t waste your time on self help books when you can read the real stuff.


  10. says:

    This book had me laughing and smiling, than many a book described in its blurb as side splittingly funny or something similar because I recognised the cognitive disillusions described in this book as my own and in any case I am the kind of person who if they fall into a good mood wonders if it s due to the pint and the pie that was eaten earlier.In my case the preacher wasn t talking to the choir, but I had been to the church before and enjoyed the services It doesn t set out to be a new book full of new discoveries It s a comfortable round up of research, investigations and thought, polished off with a couple of Kahneman s early articles as appendices If you ve read The Halo Effect and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers which puts some of these cogitative delusions in a business context, it has an excellent anecdote about the failure of a Lego product , or something along those lines you ll be familiar with some of the ideas here.By now I m quite comfortable accepting that I am not rational and that other people aren t either and that statistical thinking is alien to probably to almost everybody and Kahneman s book happily confirms my opinion And few things make us as happy as having our own biases confirmed to us.There are however a couple of problems Firstly there are some people who apparently are wedded to the notion that people are entirely rational They either will not read this book, read and reject it or indeed read it, accept it s findings but mentally note them as curious aberrations that don t affect their belief this is discussed in the book.More seriously society is organised on the tacit assumption that we are not only capable of being rational but will put the effort into doing so when required Unfortunately studies demonstrating the effect of meals on Judges reviewing parole cases like the state pawn broker in Down and out in Paris and London they are lenient after lunch and harsher beforehand and once they get hungry again or voter behaviour which turns out to be influenced by where the polling booth is located This makes me wonder My polling station used to be in the Adult Education Centre, now that s been closed down, if the polling centre was moved to the police station would my voting habits transform into those of a Fishin , Huntin and Floggin Tory who froths at the mouth hearing the words illegal immigrants Maybe I need a snack Much in the book is useful, 90% fat free does sound better than 10% fat, there s a lot to be learnt here in how to describe or state a problem to push people towards certain responses by framing or anchoring the information you give Of course this happens to us all the time as it is One of my favourite of Kahneman s examples comes from when he was working with Israeli flight instructors They were convinced that shouting and swearing at trainee pilots was the best method of improving their performance experience proved it when a pilot under performed they swore at him and on the next attempt the trainee would do better Plainly shouting works Kahneman, perhaps with a sigh, said this was simply regression to the mean After poor performance what ever they did would be followed by improved performance, swearing and shouting have no magic power To demonstrate he had the instructors throw balls of paper over their shoulder s into a waste paper bin and tracked the results on a handy black board showing that performance varied up and down irrespective of swearing Still I wonder if returning to work the instructors developed an enlightened instruction method or if they rapidly regressed to the mean and shouted and swore again.I used to think that politicians answered a different question to the one given by the interviewer in an attempt to be evasive Post Kahneman I wonder if this is just the natural tendency of the brain to substitute an easier question for a harder one Who knows.


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